Is a Kendrick Lamar 2025 Grammy Sweep Really That Certain?

Nominees: “Asteroids” (Marlanna Evans); “Carnival” (Jordan Carter, Raul Cubina, Grant Dickinson, Samuel Lindley, Nasir Pemberton, Dimitri Roger, Tyrone Griffin Jr., Kanye West, and Mark Carl Stolinski Williams); “Like That” (Kendrick Lamar Duckworth, Kobe Hood, Leland Wayne, and Nayvadius Wilburn); “Not Like Us” (Duckworth); “Yeah Glo!” (Ronnie Jackson, Jaucquez Lowe, Timothy McKibbins, Kevin Andre Price, Julius Rivera III, and Gloria Woods)

Analysis: Let’s be real, it would probably be the most shocking moment of the night if Lamar’s “Not Like Us” doesn’t take home best rap song and performance. A two-week Hot 100 chart-topper that transcended its beef origins and became a cultural anthem, “Not Like Us” is far and away the frontrunner here — even if it’s the subject of Drake’s explosive, ongoing lawsuit against UMG.

Lamar is also nominated here alongside Future, Metro Boomin, and Kobe “BbyKobe” Hood for writing “Like That,” the Hot 100 chart-topped that kicked his feud with Drake into high gear. Future has earned three previous nods in this category, but he’s lost each time. A victory for “Like That” would give Future and Metro their first wins here, and help Kendrick break a tie with Jay-Z to become the rapper with the second-most triumphs in this category (five).

But what if “Like That” and “Not Like Us” split votes? Perhaps, the Academy goes for somebody familiar like Ye (formerly Kanye West), who boasts the most nominations (17) and wins (seven) in this category’s history. Ye’s nomination comes from “Carnival,” his first Hot 100 chart-topper as a part of ¥$ (his duo with Ty Dolla $ign). With Playboi Carti and Rich the Kid in featured roles, a win for “Carnival” would reward hip-hop icons and new class alike.

Rapsody and GloRilla are looking to join Megan Thee Stallion as the only female rappers to win this category. This is Glo’s first nod in a songwriting category, and while “Yeah Glo!” was undoubtedly one of her defining hits from last year, she probably won’t be able to beat out the stiff competition here. Rapsody earned her first nomination here in 2018 with “Sassy.” This year, she’s represented by “Asteroids,” the only song in this category outside of “Not Like Us” to feature just one credited writer. While she was able to score an accompanying nod in best melodic rap performance, missing out on a best rap album nod for Please Don’t Cry signals some weakness in her rap field support.

Prediction: Kendrick Lamar, “Not Like Us”

Look Out For: Future, Metro Boomin & Kendrick Lamar, “Like That”